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Aikido Picks 2/27
Full speed ahead into troubled waters
Last few days have been very choppy. Line movement continues to be bad, and we’ve given back a good chunk of our insane start and are now only +14 units, +14%, which is still clearly above our long term win rate.
Today’s card looks like it’s got a lot of good opportunities that make sense to me, so I’m going to stick with being reasonably aggressive, but if we see another day of bad movement then we’ll need to tighten up more. If we also lose, tighten up a lot more.
951 Cubs/Braves Under 8.5+100
This kind of play could become a pass soon if things don’t improve. I don’t want to be fooled by winning units.
953 Marlins +142
This feels a lot more comfortable, I have no worries on this one.
955/956 Phillies/Cardinals Under 8.5-102
This is a little safer than Cubs/Braves but only a tiny bit, especially with a bunch of Phillies unders lately. If we didn’t have three overs on the card I’d be super worried.
957/958 Padres/Diamondbacks Over 9-112
This is a pretty large disagreement, where we have a road favorite, two solid offenses, two lousy pitchers and a hitter’s park and they’re giving us a 9, and I don’t really understand it?
959 Rockies +144
959/960 Rockies/Giants Under 8-105
Can’t say I like how low Aikido is making this, but 7 is a long way from 8 so there’s room to be wrong. Again, very tempted to pull back on at least the total.
PASSING: 963 Twins -102
PASSING: 963/964 Twins/Indians Under 8 +102
The pattern continues, and on this one I’m worried we have Maeda wrong, so I’m going to stay clear of all of it.
965/966 Yankees/orioles Under 9.5-101
Having a full nine innings isn’t great but it reflects how much the Orioles are unlikely to score, so I’m mostly fine with it.
971/972 Tigers/White Sox Over 8-104
This is a balancing bet that we wouldn’t otherwise want. It helps that our -242 is exactly on point.
973 Mariners +164
More Mariners action is a little worrisome but we have the slack here to cover it.
PASSING: Royals -110
975/976 Royals/Pirates Under 8-102
The Royals bet feels thin given the total bet and our recent history, so I’m going to pull back on it. The total seems good enough we have to play, these offenses are bad.
977 Nationals -129
977/978 Nationals/Blue Jays Over 8-115
Either Scherzer is Scherzer or he’s not, and we’ve hedged that. The Nationals bet is a bit thin otherwise, but this 0.456 rating is pretty stingy and we have a giant over bet anyway, so I’m betting this is way too much disrespect for an excellent pitcher and covering against that possibility.
979/980 Red Sox/Mets Under 8.5-108
This is a good number but I don’t really understand how Aikido is outputting a 7 here. Citi is a pitcher’s park, and also I think the Mets offense is overrated because the clutch problem almost has to be real by now, but these are reasonable offenses and not amazing pitchers so 7 doesn’t make any sense by Aikido’s own logic and I don’t know what’s happening here. If this was an 8 I’d be uncomfortable enough to pass despite what the spreadsheet says.