Aikido Picks 4/19

Steady as she goes

Starting to get the hang of things. Monday as usual is a small card:

I decided on a new procedure: I write down all the lines as either picks or passes, then I stop looking at the live lines. That way, I’m free to decide which ones to take and write things up without worrying about movement in either direction. The odds are locked and I can move bets in and out of the picks column as I write.

951 Cardinals -104

951/952 Cardinals/Nationals Under 8-106

Flaherty seems clearly better than Ross, but this rating of Ross is strangely insulting given his record so far. To hedge against that, I’m taking Under 8-106 even though it’s pretty thin.

953 Giants -104

953/954 Giants/Phillies Over 8.5-106

This again is about disrespect, in this case for Anderson. Again, I worry the disrespect is undeserved, but is it this undeserved? I have a very hard time seeing the Giants not being favorites here, so that bet is easy, but edge is so big it means that the over bet is somewhat tarnished. The edge there is still big enough to overcome that, so we’re making both bets, but if I was playing far below book limits I’d focus on the Giants part of this.

955/956 Brewers/Padres Under 7+106

Aikido seems like it’s getting carried away but I’m still fine with it.

957/958 White Sox/Red Sox Under 8-105

This is marginal and I wouldn’t have it if I hadn’t found multiple over bets that I like, as it’s natural for Aikido to like under a little too much while the weather is improving in late April.

959/960 Rays/Royals Over 8.5-101

Seems like a low number for two lousy pitchers. Sure, why not.