Starting to get the hang of things. Monday as usual is a small card:
I decided on a new procedure: I write down all the lines as either picks or passes, then I stop looking at the live lines. That way, I’m free to decide which ones to take and write things up without worrying about movement in either direction. The odds are locked and I can move bets in and out of the picks column as I write.
951 Cardinals -104
951/952 Cardinals/Nationals Under 8-106
Flaherty seems clearly better than Ross, but this rating of Ross is strangely insulting given his record so far. To hedge against that, I’m taking Under 8-106 even though it’s pretty thin.
953 Giants -104
953/954 Giants/Phillies Over 8.5-106
This again is about disrespect, in this case for Anderson. Again, I worry the disrespect is undeserved, but is it this undeserved? I have a very hard time seeing the Giants not being favorites here, so that bet is easy, but edge is so big it means that the over bet is somewhat tarnished. The edge there is still big enough to overcome that, so we’re making both bets, but if I was playing far below book limits I’d focus on the Giants part of this.
955/956 Brewers/Padres Under 7+106
Aikido seems like it’s getting carried away but I’m still fine with it.
957/958 White Sox/Red Sox Under 8-105
This is marginal and I wouldn’t have it if I hadn’t found multiple over bets that I like, as it’s natural for Aikido to like under a little too much while the weather is improving in late April.
959/960 Rays/Royals Over 8.5-101
Seems like a low number for two lousy pitchers. Sure, why not.
You seem to insert you personal judgment often. Have you measured if your personal expertise improves the model? If you just adhered blindly to the model would it win or lose?