Aikido Sports

Share this post
Aikido Picks 4/19
aikidosports.substack.com

Aikido Picks 4/19

Steady as she goes

Zvi Mowshowitz
Apr 18, 2021
Comment2
Share

Starting to get the hang of things. Monday as usual is a small card:

I decided on a new procedure: I write down all the lines as either picks or passes, then I stop looking at the live lines. That way, I’m free to decide which ones to take and write things up without worrying about movement in either direction. The odds are locked and I can move bets in and out of the picks column as I write.

951 Cardinals -104

951/952 Cardinals/Nationals Under 8-106

Flaherty seems clearly better than Ross, but this rating of Ross is strangely insulting given his record so far. To hedge against that, I’m taking Under 8-106 even though it’s pretty thin.

953 Giants -104

953/954 Giants/Phillies Over 8.5-106

This again is about disrespect, in this case for Anderson. Again, I worry the disrespect is undeserved, but is it this undeserved? I have a very hard time seeing the Giants not being favorites here, so that bet is easy, but edge is so big it means that the over bet is somewhat tarnished. The edge there is still big enough to overcome that, so we’re making both bets, but if I was playing far below book limits I’d focus on the Giants part of this.

955/956 Brewers/Padres Under 7+106

Aikido seems like it’s getting carried away but I’m still fine with it.

957/958 White Sox/Red Sox Under 8-105

This is marginal and I wouldn’t have it if I hadn’t found multiple over bets that I like, as it’s natural for Aikido to like under a little too much while the weather is improving in late April.

959/960 Rays/Royals Over 8.5-101

Seems like a low number for two lousy pitchers. Sure, why not.

Comment2
ShareShare

Create your profile

0 subscriptions will be displayed on your profile (edit)

Skip for now

Only paid subscribers can comment on this post

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in

Check your email

For your security, we need to re-authenticate you.

Click the link we sent to , or click here to sign in.

Nolan
Apr 18, 2021

You seem to insert you personal judgment often. Have you measured if your personal expertise improves the model? If you just adhered blindly to the model would it win or lose?

Expand full comment
Reply
1 reply by Zvi Mowshowitz
1 more comments…
TopNewCommunity

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2022 Zvi Mowshowitz
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Publish on Substack Get the app
Substack is the home for great writing