Aikido Picks 4/21

Several large disagreements

A very large disagreement between the lines and Aikido almost always includes something important that Aikido doesn’t know. You don’t get 60 cent edges by accident. If there are a lot of them, it’s time to even suspect a bug in the system if you can’t figure out how the disagreements are happening, or if you don’t see agreement in enough places. For a bit I was nervous, but I’m now feeling OK about it. There will be rapid shifts in April, and calling them out as overreactions slash mistakes is the job here.

951 Giants/Phillies Over 8.5+101

Doesn’t feel great doing this, as if I’ve been burned by this already, but this kind of edge has to be our bread and butter, even if I did get to the card late.

953 Cardinals +144

Standard procedure, seems good enough to take.

957/958 Diamondbacks/Reds Over 8-114

Not sure why we’re getting this opportunity but definitely seems too low.

960 Cubs +108

There’s a massive reaction here, presumably because the Cubs lineup is massively struggling, also potentially (Wrigley makes it hard to tell) moving Peterson from unfairly maligned to reasonably respected. And early on the Cubs lines are going to be volatile due to the Wrigley effect messing with our data, but the edge here is massive enough to account for all of that. Can’t turn it down.

961 Athletics +101

961/9962 Twins/Athletics Under 7.5-101

That’s quite an aggressive rating for Maeda. If you told me it was in the 4s, I wouldn’t have argued with it, but we have a reasonable buffer here.

963 Rangers +158

Again, standard procedure, teams in this range are often good plays.

969 Rays +106

969/970 Rays/Royals Over 8+102

I don’t have an explanation for why I’m being given these, and if I had more time for such matters I’d look more closely I suppose.

971 Orioles +144

Standard procedure again. I can see why this line exists but seems like it’s generous.

973/974 Astros/Rockies Over 10-101

I’ve been taking a bunch of Coors overs, so it’s possible I need to revisit the park factor there and see if they’ve made adjustments, but this one would be good anyway. We’re getting 1.5 runs.