Aikido Picks 4/29

One big disagreement we don't trust, lots of agreement

We’re only placing one bet today.

Mostly it’s a small card, with two games offline, and a lot of lines where we almost agree and I don’t see any need to push. Our line movement results have been atrocious lately, so even with good game results, it’s better to be cautious. One game needs to be talked about, and it isn’t the White Sox game.

968 White Sox -155

This is our only bet of the day, it seems straightforward even though I’m sad to once again be betting against a guy named Mize.

PASSING: 955/956 Dodgers/Brewers Over 7.5+104

PASSING: 955 Dodgers -153

These lines are way, way off and the reason is obvious. Lauer is being rated as a replacement level pitcher, whereas he’s been the opening day starter in the past. The two lines are both radically wrong, so there’s no good way to choose the better of the two here, and instead I’m choosing to stay away entirely. I don’t know what Lauer’s fair rating is but it sure isn’t 0.54. This is why a system of ‘use Aikido blind and scale when it disagrees a lot’ won’t work and will get you into a lot of trouble. At a minimum, you’d want such a system to do some sort of fundamentals (PECOTA?) check on pitchers when they make their first start of the year for a team.