After today, I’ll be on a trip, so no more picks will happen until at least Sunday, and possibly until later next week. If I find some time, I could run the results while I’m on the trip, but that would be it. If the results don’t look good, I’ll consider winding things down at least for a while so I can focus my attention elsewhere. It’s clear the closing line value numbers are bad (they’d be less bad if I bet the day before, but still bad) and readership/use isn’t gaining much momentum.
For today, it looks like there’s a lot of passing going on, but that’s because I list anything with even 1 cent of value versus my number - most of these passes are not remotely interesting offers, nor do they make me worry about the program (or the lines).
Picks
953 Phillies +118
We keep taking the Phillies, which is odd since they keep outperforming and the market keeps insisting on its adjustments, but these things certainly happen.
955 Cardinals +110
Straightforward spot where I’m getting odds and likely shouldn’t be.
959 Marlins +105
959/960 Marlins/Diamondbacks Over 7.5-108
Either we believe Bumgarner is who the oddsmakers claim, or he isn’t. Presumably that’s the disagreement here, but he’s been old and busted for a while and I’m willing to book this claim given how much edge we’ve been given. It would be reasonable to pick only one line and discard the other.
962 Tigers +122
Thin value is still value and home underdogs are generally a good place to be.
967 Twins +106
Solid value.
969/970 Angels/Astros Over 8.5+100
I don’t have a good explanation for how we’re getting this line, but as usual at this level of edge we don’t need one given the coast seems clear. I’m sad that Ohtani isn’t a better pitcher because he has lots of story value, but that’s how it goes.
971/972 Rangers/Giants Under 8-104
I don’t really ‘get’ the math on games like this but I don’t think Aikido is bugged, and that’s probably why others are making the same mistake - it doesn’t intuitively make sense to people.
976 Mets -151
I’m a little concerned to be betting on the Mets offense like this, although not concerned enough to take a total or take a pass. I’m also slightly concerned that Stroman is overrated, but the Mets bullpen seems great and had a day off, and the new hitting coach has us drawing a ton of walks which may not be a coincidence. That puts me back around something like ‘willing to go with it.’
Aikido works on "rolling" history right? Shouldn't you pass on the mets line due to low sample size concerns with the new hitting coach? I imagine it would affect the offense a lot.
What's the process for making an over/under pick? How do you calculate the amount of edge for e.g. the Angels line?