I’m back at home for a few days, then next week I’ll be off on another trip. Expect picks through Tuesday, then another break.
Picks:
953/954 Brewers/Marlins Over 6.5-113
Given we agree with the ML odds, this almost has to be too low.
955 Diamondbacks +123
955/956 Diamondbacks/Mets Under 7.5-121
I notice the Mets offense has been lowered a notch, but that’s likely not enough notches, and we have the opportunity here to bet against it two ways while being properly indifferent to Peterson, who seems correctly rated. One weakness of Aikido is that if something real happens it will be slow to adjust, so happy to be out in front for a change.
957 Phillies +157
Can they keep this up? We’ll find out, it’s certainly a good price. Under here is marginal and we have a bunch of much stronger totals available.
959 Rockies +1.5 -111
959/960 Rockies/Cardinals Under 7.5-110
The move to the runline would have happened whether or not we liked the under, it’s several cents better than the moneyline. I don’t love the spot but I think the price is good enough we go with it.
961/962 Padres/Giants Over 7-118
Edge here is a little thin but going over 7 with good offenses (and in San Francisco rather than San Diego) seems like a generally good thing to be doing.
963/964 Red Sox/Orioles Under 9-116
That’s not much respect for Harvey despite a few solid performances, so I don’t see any reason to be scared here.
965 Twins -141
A reasonably large road favorite but we have a soft under we’re not taking so it’s probably not about hating Skubal more than necessary, and we have a solid edge in offenses.
967/968 Mariners/Rangers Over 8.5-117
Solid edge, solid balancing.
969/970 White Sox/Royals Under 8.5-110
970 Royals +1.5 -118
We’re not catching a ton of value by switching to the runline but we’re reinforcing our very good total and better is still better given we were already willing to take +136.
973 Rays +126
This seems unlikely to be all that good, but also highly unlikely to be bad. If you’re not looking for thin but safe value then you pass here.
977 Reds +127
Value here is a little better than the Rays.
Why pass on 975 Nationals? It's a similar situation to 957 (if I am finally interpreting these correctly) but even more disagreement.
How do you derive the moneyline for the top team from the Aikido output?