Aikido Picks 5/9
Better late than never, unless you lose
Various things delayed me, but here’s the picks today - use caution since it’s getting late quickly:
Lot of marginal totals today. Probably pass on them even if it was earlier in the cycle, but at 10am definitely not interested in any more of those.
953 Diamondbacks +1.5 +120
953/954 Diamondbacks/Mets Under 6.5+103
Time to once again bet against the Mets offense, this time in a DeGrom day game. I’m tempted to not take the Diamondbacks here despite the extreme value here - we’re catching 50 (smaller) cents and then another 14 off the shift to the runline plus we like the under. But the Mets offense remains overrated, and also did you know that there aren’t technically listed pitchers anymore and DeGrom might not be 100%? The side is right, even if it looks silly when he strikes out 13 and wins 3-0. It’s a known risk.
955 Rockies +133
I am charging extra for the Rockies on the road but I think this is enough extra anyway.
958 Cubs -156
It’s weird that we like the Cubs in this spot, but it’s a solid edge.
964 Orioles +124
Good value in a spot where it makes sense that we’d be offered value.
970 Astros -145
This one’s more surprising and we should worry we’re underrating Pearson but the total tells me coast is probably clear. He’s no superstar.
973 Rays +102
973/974 Rays/Athletics Over 7.5-109
Feels thin to be taking both but the totals lined up a lot today and I have a healthy love for flipping the favorite when given the chance.
975/976 Nationals/Yankees Over 9-101
This one is big enough I’m fine with it. If you’re giving me a 9 with good offenses and bad pitchers I’m going to take it.
978 Indians +111
Another wrong favorite.