901 Mets R. Porcello Over 8.5-117 (for 9 innings)
902 Yankees G. Cole -221
903 Rays B. Snell Over 8.0+102
904 Marlins S. Alcantara 175
905 Cubs A. Mills Over 8.5-113
906 Reds L. Castillo -136
907 Twins K. Maeda Over 9.0+105
908 Tigers C. Mize 181
909 Nationals A. Voth Over 11.0-110
910 Red Sox Z. Godley 100
911 Royals K. Bubic Over 10.0-108
912 White Sox U. Quantity -126
913 Pirates S. Brault Over 8.5-113
914 Brewers B. Woodruff -230
915 Athletics J. Luzardo Over 9.0-110
916 Astros F. Valdez 119
917 Indians A. Civale Over 9.0+102
918 Cardinals A. Wainwright 103
919 Dodgers T. Gonsolin Over 10.5-106
920 Rangers K. Gibson 177
921 Orioles J. Lopez Over 10.5-111
922 Blue Jays T. Roark -139
923 Padres C. Paddack Over 13.5-101
924 Rockies R. Castellani 172
925 Mariners J. Dunn Over 9.5-103
926 Angels P. Sandoval -197
927 Giants J. Cueto Over 10.0-102
928 Diamondbacks T. Clarke -142
929 Braves S. Guy Over 10.5-112 (for 9 innings)
930 Phillies J. Arrieta -121
931 Yankees S. Guy Over 9.0+107 (for 9 innings)
932 Mets S. Lugo -140
It’s frustrating that I did all the work to get 7 inning games working and all I got was an over bias because the system never recognizes the double header until after I post. There are two Mets/Yankees games here so it should have fixed the issue there but there’s no way those totals represent 7 inning games, so something still went wrong. For now I’m not motivated enough to fix it, but I’ll try to get the motivation on Monday or Tuesday to figure something out that’s practical.
I’ll also try to do a review soon of how we are doing, both in terms of line movement and win/loss. I’m not following game results closely for teams other than the Mets, so I have very little idea.
Anyway, what do we like tomorrow?
915 Athletics -109 is good enough given how much other agreement we’re seeing elsewhere.
920 Rangers +194 is a big number for a home team not even facing an ace, but the Dodgers are quite the monster.
923 Padres -141 gives us the much better offense and a substantially better pitcher. I’m probably too high given the gap here, but it’s hard for this not to be value.
926 Angels -177 is available in a number of places, giving us a chance to feast on Mariners pitching at a reasonable price.
917/918 Indians/Cardinals Over 8.5-106 reassuringly far down the card. Totals seem to be coming back into line.
919/920 Dodgers/Rangers Over 9.5-102 suggests maybe not, but we’re getting an entire run so even with all the reasons to worry I’m going to take it anyway. More nine innings of Dodger offense, please.
923/924 We’ll pass on Over 12.5-104 because it being available reinforces that we might be too high on the Padres offense on top of being slightly too high in general, and we can express our opinion with -141. But it’s an interesting propsal.
927/928 We’ll also narrowly pass on Over 9.5-106 due to the bias situation. If I had a real bankroll operating right now, figuring out what I believe about scoring rates would be the top priority.
Instead, I get the frustrations of being a Mets fan. Billy Hamilton keeps getting starts rather than being used as an early pinch runner for outfielders. Backup catchers are allowed to bat in high leverage situations for no reason. Pitchers walk three including forcing in a run, and return the next inning. Other pitchers get through three perfect innings with a super low pitch count and get pulled anyway. DeGrom has tons of time off and then doesn’t start a seven inning home day game (for those who don’t know, his day game record is “don’t ever bet against him at any price” levels of insane) because someone decided they’d rather have him throw a bullpen session. That sort of thing. I really, really don’t get what Rojas is thinking way, way too often.
I’d also note that I ‘got got’ on the Mets game because I’d been informed that DJ Lemahieu could be back as early as Sunday, so I didn’t think he could be back today, and he’s worth enough to plausibly make the Yankees favorites again. Oh, well. I’m sure that kind of thing is happening to me a lot. I think that if the program was combined with strong manual adjustments and knowledge of situations, along with good execution, you’d definitely have something. In the past you didn’t need that knowledge, but perhaps now you do.