Aikido Predictions 4/18

The first overnight. Exciting times.

Overnight is when Aikido shines. If at all possible, you want to get there first, before everyone else with a program.

As the second day of wagering, we get to now compare what we did today to what we did yesterday, and beware of any patterns that indicate potential mispricing.

I’ll note the reasons for passing when passing is interesting. If it’s simply ‘the program saw a few cents but it wasn’t enough’ then going forward I won’t mention it, just list it above - if it’s missing going forward from the discussion section, that’s why. If it was big enough but I had a reason to be suspicious that isn’t discussed anyway, I’ll still mention it briefly.

One note overall is it’s possible that we are messing up 7 inning games more generally, which would explain liking so many unders today, and I’ll definitely be asking for somewhat more edge there until I can be sure.

901/902 Cardinals/Phillies Under 8-106

In April this doesn’t seem like the type of game that gets an eight, or even a seven and a half. Presumably it’s overshooting a bit with an almost flat 7, but I like going under.

905 Giants +109

Repeating oneself so quickly is suspicious, but the edge here is solid, and we agree with the total so Wood being worse than random is unlikely to account for this. Note that I likely needed more like 15 cents here rather than the usual 8-10, but I got it.

907 Pirates +176

PASSING: 907/908 Pirates/Brewers Under 8.5-114

This number on the Pirates seems like a lot, and the bet seems comfortable even with the disagreement on the total, but that did motivate me to lose the under bet.

909/910 Mets/Rockies Over 10.5-101

I was going to pass on this, but the Mets have had a bunch of doubleheaders we might be messing up and I don’t mind going over at Coors to balance things out. This might be a little thin but it seems hard for it to be actively bad.

911/912 Dodgers/Padres Under 7.5-102

Solid edge. We have the two best offenses but excellent pitchers. Again, a flat 7 seems aggressive to me, but getting 30 cents makes me comfortable.

921 Orioles+102

Sure, why not?

923/924 Twins/Angels Under 9.5-109

924 Angels -115

Last time we liked only the under, this time we like the Angels as well and the under is pretty great. Given circumstances the Angels are borderline, and if a week from now things aren’t going great I’d definitely start passing in such spots.

926 Athletics -133

If we have the better pitcher, better offense and home field it’s hard to go wrong laying -133.

927 Astros +101

927/928 Astros/Mariners Under 9-114

Astros were the pick of the day for the 4/17 games, and this is definitely less exciting a set of offerings, but it’s still good enough and I still don’t understand being an underdog here unless the offensive measurements are way off, and I don’t think they are. Total is a big enough difference I can’t argue.

929 Indians Over 7.5+103

Getting any over is exciting given our potential bias.