Aikido Predictions 4/23
Looks like the program currently has issues running the previous night for technical reasons. I pretty much know how to fix that when I have the time, I just need to find the time, but for now the morning will have to do.
953 Nationals +1.5 +124
This is a stupid line. As usual with huge favorites, the underdog runline is very cheap, and in this case you also get a ton of straight value from DeGrom being overpriced, and then you get the bonus that the Mets don’t score for DeGrom. I’ve tried to pretend that the ‘we never score for DeGrom’ thing isn’t real but at some point one needs to admit that there must be a reason. Perhaps the umpires are responsible at least partly, I don’t know. But if a coin comes up heads enough times you have to start betting like it’s not a fair coin. I know DeGrom’s been pitching completely out of his mind but I don’t care at this price. There’s no way this isn’t value.
Note that if you think DeGrom’s 0.332 isn’t respecting him enough, you can pay to bet the under here as a hedge on that.
955 Diamondbacks +152
955/956 Diamondbacks/Braves Under 8.5-108
Underdogs in this range are generally good and edge is solid so the total being played as well isn’t scaring me. I’ll consider this situation another ‘standard procedure’ moving forward.
959/960 Phillies/Rockies Under 10.5-101
960 Rockies -109
Good to see us taking an under at Coors for balance.
963/964 Padres/Dodgers Over 7 +102
Dervish and Kershaw are good pitchers, but Dervish isn’t elite and Kershaw isn’t what he once was, and these offenses are fantastic. We’re getting a good number.
965/966 Athletics/Orioles Over 9-112
Aikido thinks these are remarkably bad pitchers and given its track record I don’t see any reason to argue the point. Let’s do it.
967/968 Mariners/Red Sox Under 9+100
968 Red Sox -130
This is aggressive on the Red Sox but the season is going well enough so far that I’m willing to push a tiny bit.
971 Royals -114
Hard to hate this much on a pitcher named Mize, but we can’t get sentimental. Could easily be wrong and paying vig for no reason if he’s only bad and not this awful, but that’s a known risk.
973/974 Blue Jays/Rays Under 7-111
This is the flip side of the Dodgers game, where we get a very similar line and spot except the offenses are a lot less dangerous.
975/976 Angels/Astros Over 8-107
975 Angels +128
Going against the Astros is good for our balance, so I’m happy to take both lines here. The total is a huge edge, we have fair as a strong 9.5.
First results post should come soon, perhaps later today.