Aikido Predictions 4/25

How to move forward?

I hope some of you are getting good value out of this, ideally in the form of dollars. It’s clear that there is not going to be organic growth even with great results, and I’m not currently in a position where I can afford to market this, so it’s more about creating a track record at this point than anything else, I suppose. Post publicly to keep oneself honest, and all that.

Still waiting for the first actual comment about an individual game - it’s odd to me that no one has any thoughts on that level.

Anyway, today’s card, with the doubleheader totals in italics to represent that they are nine inning totals not seven inning totals, for whatever reason the program isn’t picking this up properly right now and I don’t have the time to go fix it yet…

Picks:

955 Reds +116

959 Phillies -101

959/960 Phillies/Rockies Under 11.5-105

I do not understand how this gets to 11.5, even at Coors, as the offenses are very much not great. I have to assume some amount of disrespect for Anderson, but that doesn’t explain it. Possible that Phillies should be a pass due to the total being so off.

967 Mariners +1.5 -103

This is substantially better than taking +185, which we would like a lot if it was our only choice.

972 Tigers +108

Note that we think they’re favorites.

973 Blue Jays -123

A little thin, but our card overall looks very solid today.

PASSING: 976 White Sox -193

This is why we list pitcher strengths. Kopech can’t possibly be known to be this good, it’s a small input size error where we solved an equation and got a silly answer. The total reflects that to some extent, and there’s nothing really to do here.

977/978 Angels/Astros Over 8.5-108

It’s thin, but again, on days/weeks when I find broad agreement, I’m happy to push a little farther. We’re not actually trying to hold 20%+.

979/980 Padres/Twins Under 8.5-111

981 Diamondbacks +115

983 Diamondbacks +170

Taking underdogs in shorter games is even better than taking them in longer games. I don’t love backing the same team twice, but I think it’s mostly fine.