Aikido Predictions 8/26

Apologies for how this looks right now, still investigating how to paste the chart in here without it getting all tangled. Hopefully it should still be easy to read.

901 Pirates       T.  Williams Over 9.0-112

902 White Sox D.  Keuchel -172

903 Phillies       A.  Nola             Over 8.0-106

904 Nationals   P.  Corbin             109

905 Red Sox    N.  Eovaldi             Over 10.0-101

906 Blue Jays  M.  Shoemaker 117

907 Orioles A.  Wojciechowski Over 8.0+100

908 Rays R.  Yarbrough             -167

909 Twins J.  Berros             Over 9.0+101

910 Indians A.  Plutko             123

911 Cubs J.  Lester             Over 9.5+101

912 Tigers M.  Fulmer             144

913 Yankees M.  Tanaka Over 8.0-108

914 Braves M.  Fried             -101

915 Marlins E.  Hernandez  Over 7.0-114

916 Mets J.  deGrom             -233

917 Reds S.  Gray             Over 8.5-103

918 Brewers A.  Houser 121

919 Royals             Over 9.0+103

920 Cardinals D.  Hudson -128

921 Athletics M.  Fiers Over 11.0-107

922 Rangers K.  Allard 136

925 Mariners T.  Walker Over 7.5-108

926 Padres D.  Lamet           -173

927 Rockies J.  Gray Over 9.5-109

928 Diamondbacks R.  Ray -118

929 Dodgers C.  Kershaw Over 8.0-104

930 Giants K.  Gausman             240

923 Angels A.  Heaney             Over 9.0-110

924 Astros L.  McCullers Jr. -122 (postponed)

What does the program like today?

901 Pirates +198. It’s good to see the program like a big underdog after all the chalk it took yesterday. Whenever things first start out the biggest worry is some huge bias. ‘Big favorite is too big’ is classically a good place to find value.

903 Phillies -102 This edge is rather small, so it’s easy to pass on this, especially because the total is so different. Whatever we think, it’s presumably better expressed there.

903/904 Phillies/Nationals Under 9-107. We think this is an 8. Nola and Corbin are very good, and the offenses aren’t great, so how the hell is this game a 9? I’m very confused by the posted line.

905-908 don’t have lines yet. You saw them here first! Same with 919-920, where we’re plugging in a random pitcher, and 923-924 is already postponed, so that’s a line in theory for a future matchup.

The games without any lines at all are a good place to check the program and its intuitions, even if you can’t ever know if it was ‘right’ or not.

909/910 Twins/Indians Over 8.5-102. We have this one around a 9.

913/914 Yankees/Braves Under 9-112. These are again two excellent pitchers and again we’re getting an Under 9.

922 Rangers +143 is right on the edge. Given the situation with the total, I’ll pass.

925 Mariners +190 is another spot like the Pirates. I sometimes wonder if the person who first sets the lines has moods in terms of how big to set the favorites.

921/922 Athletics/Rangers it wants to go Over 9.5-107 and it’s pretty clear I need to update this park factor, so I’m actually going to call this one off for another day while I think about what the park factor is supposed to be. Anyone have a good handle on this?

So that leaves my slate as:

901 Pirates +198

903/904 Phillies/Nationals Under 9-107

909/910 Twins/Indians Over 8.5-102

913/914 Yankees/Braves Under 9-112

925 Mariners +190

We can also double back for today’s games, since several didn’t have pitchers when I posted yesterday:

959 Cubs T. Chatwood Over 9.0-105

960 Tigers S. Turnbull 111

961 Yankees G. Cole Over 8.0-106

962 Braves T. Toussaint 186

963 Marlins D. Castano Over 8.5-116 (if it was 9 innings)

964 Mets R. Porcello -155

981 Mets S. Lugo Over 9.0-111 (if it was 9 innings)

982 Marlins M. Gonzales 171

983 Angels J. Teheran Over 10.5-110 (if it were 9 innings)

984 Astros B. Bielak -128

There are… some issues. The Mets/Marlins games are both 7 innings and in the same stadium, and it knows neither of those things. So we’re underestimating the starters, overestimating the bullpens, underestimating the underdogs, and reversing (newly reduced) home field advantage in the second game. The totals are certainly way too high in all the doubleheader games. I’ll need to teach the system to simulate 7 inning games. Shouldn’t be too hard, but I haven’t done it yet. Probably get to that on Thursday. That also explains why we liked the over in the first Astros game - without the other game listed I didn’t realize it was 7 innings. It looks good now since as of writing this it’s 5-0 in the second inning, but the model definitely shouldn’t have gotten involved so that bet should be scratched - it thought a weak 11 with 9 innings, so it would have probably thought it was a 9 with 7 innings. The 7.5 closing line still seems nuts and I’m confused how it ended up that low.

Given it’s game day, I’m going to look for a lot of edge and pass on these remaining totals. I’m willing to take +178 on D. Castanso despite the late hour. That’s a good price for a seven inning game.