Apologies for how this looks right now, still investigating how to paste the chart in here without it getting all tangled. Hopefully it should still be easy to read.
901 Pirates T. Williams Over 9.0-112
902 White Sox D. Keuchel -172
903 Phillies A. Nola Over 8.0-106
904 Nationals P. Corbin 109
905 Red Sox N. Eovaldi Over 10.0-101
906 Blue Jays M. Shoemaker 117
907 Orioles A. Wojciechowski Over 8.0+100
908 Rays R. Yarbrough -167
909 Twins J. Berros Over 9.0+101
910 Indians A. Plutko 123
911 Cubs J. Lester Over 9.5+101
912 Tigers M. Fulmer 144
913 Yankees M. Tanaka Over 8.0-108
914 Braves M. Fried -101
915 Marlins E. Hernandez Over 7.0-114
916 Mets J. deGrom -233
917 Reds S. Gray Over 8.5-103
918 Brewers A. Houser 121
919 Royals Over 9.0+103
920 Cardinals D. Hudson -128
921 Athletics M. Fiers Over 11.0-107
922 Rangers K. Allard 136
925 Mariners T. Walker Over 7.5-108
926 Padres D. Lamet -173
927 Rockies J. Gray Over 9.5-109
928 Diamondbacks R. Ray -118
929 Dodgers C. Kershaw Over 8.0-104
930 Giants K. Gausman 240
923 Angels A. Heaney Over 9.0-110
924 Astros L. McCullers Jr. -122 (postponed)
What does the program like today?
901 Pirates +198. It’s good to see the program like a big underdog after all the chalk it took yesterday. Whenever things first start out the biggest worry is some huge bias. ‘Big favorite is too big’ is classically a good place to find value.
903 Phillies -102 This edge is rather small, so it’s easy to pass on this, especially because the total is so different. Whatever we think, it’s presumably better expressed there.
903/904 Phillies/Nationals Under 9-107. We think this is an 8. Nola and Corbin are very good, and the offenses aren’t great, so how the hell is this game a 9? I’m very confused by the posted line.
905-908 don’t have lines yet. You saw them here first! Same with 919-920, where we’re plugging in a random pitcher, and 923-924 is already postponed, so that’s a line in theory for a future matchup.
The games without any lines at all are a good place to check the program and its intuitions, even if you can’t ever know if it was ‘right’ or not.
909/910 Twins/Indians Over 8.5-102. We have this one around a 9.
913/914 Yankees/Braves Under 9-112. These are again two excellent pitchers and again we’re getting an Under 9.
922 Rangers +143 is right on the edge. Given the situation with the total, I’ll pass.
925 Mariners +190 is another spot like the Pirates. I sometimes wonder if the person who first sets the lines has moods in terms of how big to set the favorites.
921/922 Athletics/Rangers it wants to go Over 9.5-107 and it’s pretty clear I need to update this park factor, so I’m actually going to call this one off for another day while I think about what the park factor is supposed to be. Anyone have a good handle on this?
So that leaves my slate as:
901 Pirates +198
903/904 Phillies/Nationals Under 9-107
909/910 Twins/Indians Over 8.5-102
913/914 Yankees/Braves Under 9-112
925 Mariners +190
We can also double back for today’s games, since several didn’t have pitchers when I posted yesterday:
959 Cubs T. Chatwood Over 9.0-105
960 Tigers S. Turnbull 111
961 Yankees G. Cole Over 8.0-106
962 Braves T. Toussaint 186
963 Marlins D. Castano Over 8.5-116 (if it was 9 innings)
964 Mets R. Porcello -155
981 Mets S. Lugo Over 9.0-111 (if it was 9 innings)
982 Marlins M. Gonzales 171
983 Angels J. Teheran Over 10.5-110 (if it were 9 innings)
984 Astros B. Bielak -128
There are… some issues. The Mets/Marlins games are both 7 innings and in the same stadium, and it knows neither of those things. So we’re underestimating the starters, overestimating the bullpens, underestimating the underdogs, and reversing (newly reduced) home field advantage in the second game. The totals are certainly way too high in all the doubleheader games. I’ll need to teach the system to simulate 7 inning games. Shouldn’t be too hard, but I haven’t done it yet. Probably get to that on Thursday. That also explains why we liked the over in the first Astros game - without the other game listed I didn’t realize it was 7 innings. It looks good now since as of writing this it’s 5-0 in the second inning, but the model definitely shouldn’t have gotten involved so that bet should be scratched - it thought a weak 11 with 9 innings, so it would have probably thought it was a 9 with 7 innings. The 7.5 closing line still seems nuts and I’m confused how it ended up that low.
Given it’s game day, I’m going to look for a lot of edge and pass on these remaining totals. I’m willing to take +178 on D. Castanso despite the late hour. That’s a good price for a seven inning game.