Aikido Predictions 8/27
I’ve put a bunch of effort into getting the system to understand seven inning games. Right now, it still thinks every game is nine innings, which is doubtless causing a bunch of different small problems. Traditionalist that I am, I assumed when writing the program that games would be nine innings, so that got rather hard coded in. Giving games the option to only go seven has been trickier than I expected.
Then at some point I have to figure out what to do about the runners that start on second base. So many abominations this year.
At some point I’ll look back at how the program is doing, but it seems right to let it have a few days to breathe before that happens. Small sample sizes can mislead, so better not to look yet. I also have to fix the Rangers’ park factor, but decided 7 inning games were higher priority for my modeling/coding time, so it’ll have to wait a bit. Easy enough to adjust for that one, for now, although it could have cascading effects.
It’s also clear that this year the program is overestimating generic pitchers. The default rating is going to have to get worse.
Anyway, here are tomorrow’s odds:
955 Rockies K. Freeland Over 9.0-105
956 Diamondbacks Z. Gallen -130
957 Red Sox C. Mazza Over 9.5-109
958 Blue Jays H. Ryu -124
959 Orioles J. Means Over 7.5-109
960 Rays R. Yarbrough -155
961 Twins R. Dobnak Over 9.5+101
962 Tigers M. Boyd 142
965 Phillies S. Howard Over 8.0-109
966 Nationals M. Scherzer -169
967 Athletics C. Bassitt Over 10.0+101
968 Rangers J. Lyles 156 (park not adjusted yet)
969 Reds W. Miley Over 9.5-112
970 Brewers J. Lindblom -139
971 Dodgers W. Buehler Over 9.5+104
972 Giants L. Webb 236
975 Pirates C. Ponce Over 8.5-104 (for 9 innings)
976 Cardinals J. Oviedo -155
The program isn’t recognizing the Mariners/Padres game for some reason, or the other Cardinals game. It definitely thinks the other Cardinals game is the higher scoring one, and if anything favors the Cardinals more than this one does.
What we like tomorrow:
955 Rockies +140. In general I’ve historically felt very comfortable taking underdogs with this level of edge, if there’s no obvious reason to worry. When doing so, getting a good price is very important. If you don’t have access to the best price, sit games like this out, 10 cents isn’t that much as it is. Given we have the Rockies, not going to quite go for the over here.
957 Red Sox +160. That’s obviously a lot more exciting. We think the Red Sox have the slightly better offense here, and the defensive gap isn’t considered to be that bad, as Mazza is a solid number three starter, but it feels like the program is making a mistake to be off by this much. I’d still take it, but I don’t expect this to get anywhere near -124.
959 Orioles +170. We’re taking a bunch of road underdogs these last two days, so the obvious question is how much we should be valuing home field, and the other question is whether teams that are losing are starting to accept defeat and move into next-season mode. Something to keep an eye on.
959/960 Under 8.5-106 The under and road team run in opposite directions, and we’re getting about 18 cents here, which seems like enough.
962 Tigers +155. Yet another solid underdog is available, this time at home. I’m relieved the program doesn’t want the Phillies.
967/968 We agree with the total despite the old park factor. Interesting.
969/970 Reds/Brewers Over 9-118. Nine is a big point and this opened just low enough to be interesting.
970 Brewers -125. This helps balance things out more, and seems like a logical spot.
972 Dodgers -220 isn’t good enough to play at my current level of confidence, but it’s worth noting that the program does like it.
971/972 Over 9+104 seems like the better way to express our respect for the Dodgers offense.
So our slate is, remembering that much of it is price sensitive:
955 Rockies +140
957 Red Sox +160
959 Orioles +170
959/960 Orioles/Rays Under 8.5-106
962 Tigers +155
969/970 Reds/Brewers Over 9-118
970 Brewers -125
971/972 Dodgers/Giants Over 9+104