Aikido Predictions 8/29 (first half)
953 Indians C. Carrasco Over 7.5-104
954 Cardinals J. Flaherty -105
967 Dodgers R. Stripling Over 9.5-104
968 Rangers L. Lynn 150
969 Pirates J. Brubaker Over 9.5-106
970 Brewers B. Anderson -169
971 Athletics J. Luzardo Over 9.0-103
972 Astros Z. Greinke 104
973 Nationals A. Sanchez Over 12.0+105
974 Red Sox C. Mazza -102
975 Padres A. Morejon Over 14.5-102
976 Rockies R. Castellani 160
977 Giants T. Cahill Over 11.0-107
978 Diamondbacks L. Weaver -169
Lot of games missing from the slate right now, so we’ll want to revisit again tomorrow if we can. It’s clear that something is causing us to believe in offenses more than the market does.
As always, all overs assume nine inning games. I don’t see any double headers on tomorrow’s full schedule that have lines - the Cubs/Reds and Twins/Tigers are playing two each, but that doesn’t matter yet.
971 Athletics +115 looks pretty good.
967/968 Dodgers/Rangers Over 8.5-108. It’s another over in Texas which I still haven’t addressed, but the edge is very large here. Hard to pass it up. Dodgers get a full nine innings at the plate.
969/970 Pirates/Brewers Over 9-112 is yet another tempting over. If we weren’t slamming lots of other overs right now, I’d take it, or at least intend to take it later. But with a clear general disagreement with the market and other better spots, this is no longer all that tempting.
973/974 We are not actually going to go over in Boston, because 11.5 is a lot and the 12 isn’t worth much - better to float it and see what happens.
977/978 Giants/Diamondbacks Over 9.5-102 is forcing our hand as well, if you take the numbers seriously.
978 Diamondbacks -136 is nominally a smaller edge than the over, but it feels a lot more solid under the circumstances.