The results can be viewed here, and you can check to confirm that I’ve counted them correctly, but, well, oh my. This is quite the start!
Aikido is a stunning 33-17-2 for +18.7 units and a 35.94% (!!!) hold through 4/21.
That’s after last year, when we had a final record of 78-66 for +16.9 units and an 11.72% hold.
If I was a tout, I would be screaming from the rooftops. I would be buying advertisements screaming this record. I’d take this Substack to subscription-based at $100/month or more on the theory that we are making it rain.
I’m not going to do that. At least, I’m not going to do that yet. But man is it tempting. I’m on a heater, and it’s what you’re kinda supposed to do here.
The thing is, we all know I’ve been lucky as hell. There’s no way this program holds 36%. There’s not even a way it holds 11%, not in the long term. It’s not a thing. Nothing like this is going to hold more than 5% or so, maybe 8% at the extreme. But still, it’s nice to be here while we’re here.
The line movement results are similar to last year. Last year we averaged -1.1 cents, so positive change but not enough to pay the price for betting on its own. This year we’re at -1.58, likely due to being worse at getting our numbers locked in early.
It’s up to you what to do with this information. There will be swings. Big swings. Some of them will be negative. I’ve had those seasons before. One NCAA basketball season I got ground into dust (for real money) despite beating the closing line reliably, and I still have no idea how that happened.
But for now, for Aikido, this definitely feels really good.