Note: Please do not get overexcited by early results. There will be big swings, there always are. But yes, as of Tuesday we were off to a simply fantastic start.
I like the idea of playing the odds given by the bookmakers against themselves. If you find inconsistencies and bet on them you should come out ahead if the inconsistencies are not based on something material. It also seems like much less work then trying to actually model everything yourself.
One thing I've been doing recently is arbing in play NBA moneylines and it works out fairly well however the limits on in game bets are fairly low on most bookmakers unless there is a timeout or something.
One other thing I've been thinking about is just pulling all in game data for NBA or MLB and then trying to bet on the swings. Let's say for example for NBA games that are within two points with 5 minutes left one basket results in an x% increase in that team winning but the bookies are moving the odds y% where y is much bigger than x. I think you could find an edge that way and again it doesn't require you to know much about the teams because the strength of the teams is already baked in. You are just trying to bet the relative change in odds after a given play.
Note: Please do not get overexcited by early results. There will be big swings, there always are. But yes, as of Tuesday we were off to a simply fantastic start.
I like the idea of playing the odds given by the bookmakers against themselves. If you find inconsistencies and bet on them you should come out ahead if the inconsistencies are not based on something material. It also seems like much less work then trying to actually model everything yourself.
One thing I've been doing recently is arbing in play NBA moneylines and it works out fairly well however the limits on in game bets are fairly low on most bookmakers unless there is a timeout or something.
One other thing I've been thinking about is just pulling all in game data for NBA or MLB and then trying to bet on the swings. Let's say for example for NBA games that are within two points with 5 minutes left one basket results in an x% increase in that team winning but the bookies are moving the odds y% where y is much bigger than x. I think you could find an edge that way and again it doesn't require you to know much about the teams because the strength of the teams is already baked in. You are just trying to bet the relative change in odds after a given play.