Aikido Predictions 4/24
Pride will always get you
Last night did not go well. We gave back two units, which is perfectly normal, but the line movement also wasn’t great, which is something to keep a closer eye on. The straight up results remain fantastic: 38-24-3, +16.4 units, +25% hold, but line movement is -2 cents/game.
On to today’s picks.
901/902 Reds/Cardinals Over 8-102
905/906 Nationals/Mets Under 8.5-112
905 Nationals +171
913/914 Padres/Dodgers Over 7-107
917/918 Royals/Tigers Over 8+103
907 Diamondbacks +1.5 -110
This isn’t that much better than +180, but it’s better, and we like the under which helps on the margin.
909 Phillies -190
Laying a gigantic number on the road never feels great, but this makes a lot of sense. You definitely get a big offensive edge, and you get an ace in Nola against a journeyman-level pitcher in Senzatela. I wouldn’t want to get into a habit, but there’s a time and a place for everything.
929/930 Pirates/Twins Under 8-106
929 Pirates +1.5 -108
This runline is substantially better than the +185, which we would also take if it was our only option, and the edge on the under is solid.
Is there a clear relationship between moneyline and handicap? Part of me says yes and part says no. If we assume the scores of each team is some random variable A (away) and H (home) then away wins if A > H. However, it seems like these variables are not independent, even in baseball were they seem more independent than other sports. Each team gets at least 18 at bats (excluding being up in the bottom of the 9th). If you are down a lot you may just pack it in and put in a bad pitcher or you may play riskier with batters swinging for the fences.
On what basis do you say +1.5 -110 is better than +180?
For example take the Cubs vs Brewers game yesterday. 10 runs in the first 2 innings then 5 in the remaining. Did the Cubs play more conservatively after getting up? I'm not sure but it seems likely.