Last night did not go well. We gave back two units, which is perfectly normal, but the line movement also wasn’t great, which is something to keep a closer eye on. The straight up results remain fantastic: 38-24-3, +16.4 units, +25% hold, but line movement is -2 cents/game.
On to today’s picks.
901/902 Reds/Cardinals Over 8-102
905/906 Nationals/Mets Under 8.5-112
905 Nationals +171
913/914 Padres/Dodgers Over 7-107
917/918 Royals/Tigers Over 8+103
907 Diamondbacks +1.5 -110
This isn’t that much better than +180, but it’s better, and we like the under which helps on the margin.
909 Phillies -190
Laying a gigantic number on the road never feels great, but this makes a lot of sense. You definitely get a big offensive edge, and you get an ace in Nola against a journeyman-level pitcher in Senzatela. I wouldn’t want to get into a habit, but there’s a time and a place for everything.
929/930 Pirates/Twins Under 8-106
929 Pirates +1.5 -108
This runline is substantially better than the +185, which we would also take if it was our only option, and the edge on the under is solid.