Is there a clear relationship between moneyline and handicap? Part of me says yes and part says no. If we assume the scores of each team is some random variable A (away) and H (home) then away wins if A > H. However, it seems like these variables are not independent, even in baseball were they seem more independent than other sports. Each team gets at least 18 at bats (excluding being up in the bottom of the 9th). If you are down a lot you may just pack it in and put in a bad pitcher or you may play riskier with batters swinging for the fences.
On what basis do you say +1.5 -110 is better than +180?
For example take the Cubs vs Brewers game yesterday. 10 runs in the first 2 innings then 5 in the remaining. Did the Cubs play more conservatively after getting up? I'm not sure but it seems likely.
Handicap is a function of: Whether or not there is a DH (AL vs. NL), ML and Total. Bigger the total, the less likely the game lands 1, same with the DH. Mostly it's the ML that matters. And of course it's a completely different calculation home vs. away because of how the game ends.
Teams 'packing it in' has a minimal effect because those games were already almost never landing.
Is there a clear relationship between moneyline and handicap? Part of me says yes and part says no. If we assume the scores of each team is some random variable A (away) and H (home) then away wins if A > H. However, it seems like these variables are not independent, even in baseball were they seem more independent than other sports. Each team gets at least 18 at bats (excluding being up in the bottom of the 9th). If you are down a lot you may just pack it in and put in a bad pitcher or you may play riskier with batters swinging for the fences.
On what basis do you say +1.5 -110 is better than +180?
For example take the Cubs vs Brewers game yesterday. 10 runs in the first 2 innings then 5 in the remaining. Did the Cubs play more conservatively after getting up? I'm not sure but it seems likely.
Handicap is a function of: Whether or not there is a DH (AL vs. NL), ML and Total. Bigger the total, the less likely the game lands 1, same with the DH. Mostly it's the ML that matters. And of course it's a completely different calculation home vs. away because of how the game ends.
Teams 'packing it in' has a minimal effect because those games were already almost never landing.