With two unders we legitimately like, I’m no longer worried about the over bias, and I’m willing to take the Padres/Angels over much thinner than I would have been willing to a few days ago. Here are the picks, as listed above: 952 Rockies -131 is strong enough that it’s suspicious, as favorites don’t offer this level of edge often. But the Giants didn’t make a move at the deadline, so this is about us thinking Webb is actively bad. The usual check is, let’s assume the total is accurate, what happens then? In this case, we still have value. I don’t know anything about Webb, but it seems from the stats that thinking he’s below replacement is at least reasonable, although some projections seem relatively optimistic.
So somehow I missed that the Padres offense did improve substantially? Either way pretty clear from the line that I got got there.