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What would Benter mean in practice? What's the bet? I notice I am confused there.

I haven't checked Brier scores but keep in mind that you don't need a superior model to the market to win. If you have one you are a true monster.

Results this good are never sustainable at this level, period. And lack of line movement is a very bad sign. But there ARE ways to win without it, and over large enough samples money talks and bullshit walks. Question is how big

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Sorry this is late...gmail started burying these for some reason even though I've told it not to!

Back when I was working on handicapping all the time instead of just picking off bad lines, I was firmly in the camp that closing line value was basically all that mattered. As such, I'm a little nervous about long-term viability. I think a breakdown of CLV on dogs vs favorites might be interesting.

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To be clear, the line movement being random means that the units over the long run will not be sustainable, correct?

Did you run some brier score metric over the current results? With ~10 bins there should be enough to judge somewhat whether the model is calibrated or not. I know there's also some formulas for calculating confidence intervals for identifying bins where the sample size is too small to tell whether the model is calibrated or not.

Are you considering betting Benter-style at all? (in that, if your model and the market agree, then you vote towards what both your models are saying)

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