I've seen for other sports a lot of these bookies give a ton of props for players. I wonder how successful you could be building a model that took those as conditional probabilities (e.g. The over/under is 10 but it has 5 players with 2.5 RBI over/under so therefore either the player over/unders are wrong or the game over/under is wrong). Since there are lot of different props it is harder from them to all be consistent with the game lines.
I think this is a very useful post that was missing last year when you were posting lines. So thanks for that!
What factors does Aikido consider in the first place? I'm still a little unclear. (obviously you don't have to share if you think this is what gives you your edge)
Other than generic issues of edge/Kelly why is -110 insufficient? Are there hidden fees on Pinnacle that everyone knows (but I don't, not doing much active sports book work?)
I've seen for other sports a lot of these bookies give a ton of props for players. I wonder how successful you could be building a model that took those as conditional probabilities (e.g. The over/under is 10 but it has 5 players with 2.5 RBI over/under so therefore either the player over/unders are wrong or the game over/under is wrong). Since there are lot of different props it is harder from them to all be consistent with the game lines.
I think this is a very useful post that was missing last year when you were posting lines. So thanks for that!
What factors does Aikido consider in the first place? I'm still a little unclear. (obviously you don't have to share if you think this is what gives you your edge)
Small typo: *brier score
Other than generic issues of edge/Kelly why is -110 insufficient? Are there hidden fees on Pinnacle that everyone knows (but I don't, not doing much active sports book work?)